The Federal Government has begun efforts to secure crude oil supply for the Dangote Petroleum Refinery through international third-party traders in a bid to sustain domestic refining operations and stabilise fuel supply in the country.
The move is being coordinated through the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC), which officials say is leveraging its global trading network to source crude at competitive international rates for the refinery.
However, industry sources cautioned that the intervention may not immediately translate into lower petrol prices for consumers, as Nigerians continue to grapple with rising fuel costs.
Recent adjustments in petrol pricing have pushed gantry prices from about ₦774 to ₦995 per litre, triggering higher pump prices across several states. In many locations, petrol is now selling above ₦1,000 per litre, with some retail stations dispensing the product for as high as ₦1,200 per litre.
The situation has heightened concerns among motorists and businesses as higher fuel costs continue to drive up transportation fares and the prices of goods and services nationwide.
Temporary halt in petrol loading
Oil marketers and industry players confirmed that the Dangote refinery recently suspended the loading of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, for the second time within a week. The development has fuelled speculation that another round of price increases may be imminent.
Analysts say the disruption highlights the challenges of maintaining steady domestic supply amid global crude market volatility and limited feedstock availability for local refineries.
Global oil tensions adding pressure
Energy analysts also link the situation to rising global oil prices triggered by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the standoff involving Iran and the United States. The crisis has disrupted oil supply chains and pushed Brent crude prices above $92 per barrel.
Concerns over possible disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz—a critical global energy shipping route—have further increased costs for refiners sourcing crude internationally.
A senior official at NNPC, speaking anonymously due to lack of authorisation, said the national oil company remains committed to supporting domestic refining.
“As the national oil company entrusted with safeguarding Nigeria’s energy security, NNPC Limited remains fully committed to supporting domestic refining, including the Dangote Petroleum Refinery. Within the framework of our existing agreements, we continue to facilitate crude supply to the refinery despite temporary availability constraints,” the official said.
Domestic crude supply shortfall
Despite the support, the refinery continues to face shortages of locally supplied crude. According to industry sources, the facility receives only about five cargoes of crude monthly from NNPC, far below the 13 cargoes required under the government’s naira-for-crude policy.
The shortfall has forced the refinery to rely heavily on imported crude purchased at international market prices.
Officials at the refinery noted that the ongoing Middle East crisis has also raised global energy costs, affecting the pricing of refined products.
Calls for expanded naira-for-crude policy
Industry stakeholders say expanding crude supply to domestic refineries could help moderate fuel prices.
The National Publicity Secretary of the Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria, Eche Idoko, said the naira-for-crude policy could significantly influence pricing if fully implemented.
According to him, the Dangote refinery requires about 14 cargoes of crude monthly from the government to meet production demands.
Idoko added that continued reliance on imported crude—especially shipments routed around sensitive regions such as the Strait of Hormuz—inevitably increases costs that are eventually passed on to Nigerian consumers.
Market competition concerns
Energy analysts have also raised concerns over limited competition in the fuel market.
The Chief Executive Officer of Petroleumprice.ng, Jeremiah Olatide, said many marketers seeking petrol import licences have not been granted approvals this year, leaving the Dangote refinery with significant influence over supply.
He suggested that allowing controlled fuel imports alongside domestic refining could strengthen energy security and stabilise prices.
“Imports should not exceed about 20 to 25 per cent of total supply, while the rest is refined locally,” Olatide said, noting that such a balance would help the economy.
Rising reliance on imported crude
Data from energy analytics firm Kpler shows that crude exports from the United States to Nigeria surged to 41.13 million barrels in 2025, representing a 161 per cent increase from 15.79 million barrels in 2024.
The increase reflects Nigeria’s growing dependence on foreign crude supplies to feed its refining capacity.
In July 2025 alone, the Dangote refinery reportedly imported about 590,000 barrels per day of crude, with roughly 60 per cent sourced from US light sweet crude and 40 per cent from Nigerian grades.
Expanding distribution network
Amid the supply challenges, the refinery has expanded its network of fuel distributors, increasing the number of approved petroleum marketers from 13 to more than 30 nationwide.
Among the marketers listed are NIPCO Plc, MRS Oil Nigeria Plc, TotalEnergies Marketing Nigeria Plc and Conoil Plc.
Industry observers say the expansion is aimed at improving nationwide distribution of petrol while the refinery navigates supply constraints and global market pressures.
Despite the current challenges, analysts note that the Dangote refinery has helped cushion Nigeria from even sharper fuel price spikes, warning that pump prices could have climbed far higher without domestic refining capacity.