Liquid reserves declined 5.6% since March 18, when the naira started its rebound from record-low levels against the dollar, to $31.7 billion as of April 12, according to Bloomberg’s calculations based on the latest available data from the Central Bank of Nigeria.
Nigeria is burning through its foreign exchange reserves at
a rate not seen in four years, raising concerns that the central bank is
depleting its dollar holdings to support the naira after pledging it would
allow the currency to float more freely.
Liquid reserves declined 5.6% since March 18, when the naira
started its rebound from record-low levels against the dollar, to $31.7 billion
as of April 12, according to Bloomberg’s calculations based on the latest
available data from the Central Bank of Nigeria.
That’s the biggest decline in a similar period since April
2020, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
At the beginning of the year, the naira went down to about
N1,900 to a dollar. Many speculators had expected the value of the naira to
continue its free fall. However, the naira has been gaining strength lately and
has gone up to about N1,100 to a dollar.
Bloomberg reports that the development came after the
Central Bank of Nigeria introduced measures to improve liquidity, attract
capital inflows and allow the market to determine the naira’s exchange rate. As
part of the reforms, the CBN pledged to clear a backlog of pent-up dollar
demand.
“The CBN does appear to be using its FX reserves to clear
the valid backlog, and return the naira to a realistic exchange rate,” said
Charles Robertson, the London-based head of macro strategy at FIM Partners. “My
assumption is they hope to encourage others – local and foreign investors – to
start investing in the local currency, and return private sector liquidity to
the foreign exchange market.”
Nigeria still has a sizable cushion of foreign-exchange
reserves, buoyed by a rally in oil prices and inflows from multi-lateral loans.
Gross reserves of around $32.6 billion cover about six months’ worth of
imports, according to the International Monetary Fund.
The central bank said last month it had cleared a backlog of
overdue dollar purchase agreements estimated at $7 billion since the beginning
of the year.
That was built over years as the central bank pegged its
currency against the dollar, leading to a scarcity of foreign currency that
deterred foreign portfolio investment. However, it’s unclear how much dollar
debt the CBN retains on its books.
The publication of the central bank’s financial statements
late last year showed it had securities lending agreements with JP Morgan Chase
& Co. for $7 billion and another $500 million with Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
It is not clear if those obligations have been settled. A
spokesperson for the central bank didn’t immediately respond to Bloomberg’s
request for comment on the telephone.
The FX reserves have fallen despite a surge of inflows into
capital markets following 600 basis points of cumulative interest rate hikes in
February and March, which increased the allure of Nigerian local debt. Foreign
portfolio inflows exceeded $1 billion in February, bringing total receipts so
far this year to at least $2.3 billion, according to the central bank.
“The CBN will also be aware that new inflows from
Afreximbank, the World Bank, and a possible eurobond, plus the benefit of
higher oil prices and a likely return of remittances via official and
semi-official channels (rather than bitcoin) will allow reserves to stabilize
or rise again,” Robertson said.
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